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The consensus is that Republicans will take the House but fall short in taking control of the Senate. But nothing is a done deal until the votes are cast and counted.
Your election day thoughts?
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Steve Benen has a message for all of you. Simple and to the point.
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For Sue Lowden’s sake, let’s hope she did not count her chickens before they hatched. She got beat out by Sharron Angle in Nevada. While in Arkansas, conservative Dem Blanche Lincoln eked out her victory. And I’m sorry to report that Orly Taitz lost her bid to represent Republicans and become California’s Secretary of state. That one hurt.
Your thoughts?
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The Palin factor…
Keep in mind, the two Republican statewide candidates who won this week — Christie in New Jersey and McDonnell and Virginia — wanted nothing to do with Palin, while the high profile conservative candidate who embraced Palin — Doug Hoffman in NY23 — lost in a district that hadn’t elected a Democrat since the 19th century.
A bit of sarcasm from John Cole…
It has now been about 36 hours since the most definitive victory for conservatism ever, yet according to my sources, Obama is still President, the Senate still has 60 Democrats, and the House gained a Democrat.
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Conservatives are going to overreact with their wins in New Jersey and Virginia and downplay their loss in NY-23. Democrats will do the exact opposite. Let them. Trying to predict next years midterms by the results of last night would be akin to reading tea leaves.
Marcus in WashPo writes…
Advice to readers about the coming orgy of analysis about the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections: Ignore it. Disquisitions on The Meaning of It All for President Obama or the 2009 results as a harbinger for Congress in 2010 have scant basis in reality.
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In the 15 gubernatorial elections since 1949, the voters of New Jersey and Virginia have chosen governors belonging to the same party 10 times (seven Democrats, three Republicans). In five of those 10 elections, the party winning both governorships went on to pick up seats in the House and Senate the next year. In three, a sweep of the statehouses augured precisely the opposite result in the subsequent congressional election. Once, Democrats won both governors’ races and went on to get a split result (losing seats in one chamber of Congress, gaining them in another). Once, the same thing happened to Republicans. Not a particularly compelling pattern.
There is some irony in the results. In both NJ and Virginia, Reps emphasized the point that the election was not about Obama and they ended up winning both. In NY-23, they made the campaign specifically about Obama’s “socialist agenda”…and they lost.
End result, Reps gained a governor while giving Nancy Pelosi a little more firepower in the House. Nothing more and no lasting message to be derived from any of this.
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