We knew it was happening, but this fast?
Trend lines for the California GOP are in free-fall. For example:
• Republican numbers have fallen to 29% of registered voters. Independents have grown to 21%. Democrats are at 44%. At the current rate, independents will surpass Republicans before the end of the decade. And independents tend to vote and think a lot more like Democrats than Republicans.
• Latinos are shunning the GOP. And within months they’re projected to surpass whites as California’s largest ethnic group. Among Latinos, 57% are registered Democrats, 25% are independents and the GOP is No. 3 at 18%, according to the roundtable.
By the end of the decade, the current trend has Republicans relegated to 3rd party status in California. Wow. And unless Republicans make serious changes to their platform in regard to minorities, women and just about every other issue they’re locked into, it’s not hard to imagine the same happening in other states.
Red state Texas (Hispanic population projected to grow by 58 percent by 2016) will soon find itself a lovely shade of purple as a fast-growing Latino population continues to align itself with the Democratic party. Nevada – currently a swing state – will in all likelihood be a blue state by the time the 2016 election rolls around. In four years time, Nevada will have another 100,000 Hispanic voters ready to cast their vote for Hillary.
And then there’s this:
According to a 2009 study by the Center for American Progress: “In 2020 — the first presidential election where all Millennials will have reached voting age — this generation will be 103 million strong, of which about 90 million will be eligible voters. Those 90 million Millennial eligible voters will represent just under 40 percent of America’s eligible voters.”
Guillory points to another 2009 study, from the Pew Research Center, showing that some 22 percent of all people under the age of 18 in the United States are Hispanic. That number is up considerably from 9 percent in 1980.
Is it too late for Republicans to alter course and deal effectively with the demographic demon they now face? Probably. Decades of scorn and neglect for minorities has done its damage and that Rubicon has been crossed no matter what Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz says.
As Dem strategist David Townsend put it.
“Too white, too right and too uptight. That’s why the Republican Party can’t come back in California.”
Or elsewhere, I suspect.