polls

Republicans Losing The Women’s Vote

April 2, 2012 By mario piperni

Unless Mitt Romney finds a plausible way to convince women that he really isn’t the dick he’s portrayed himself to be, the difference in November might come down to this.

President Obama has opened the first significant lead of the 2012 campaign in the nation’s dozen top battleground states, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, boosted by a huge shift of women to his side.

In the fifth Swing States survey taken since last fall, Obama leads Republican front-runner Mitt Romney 51%-42% among registered voters just a month after the president had trailed him by two percentage points.

The biggest change came among women under 50. In mid-February, just under half of those voters supported Obama. Now more than six in 10 do while Romney’s support among them has dropped by 14 points, to 30%. The president leads him 2-1 in this group.

Romney stating that he’d end federal funding of Planned Parenthood and that he supported the Blunt Amendment which would have given employers the right to prevent women from obtaining insurance coverage for contraception (or any other service) based on the employer’s religious or moral beliefs, is no way to make friends among women or any other fair-minded, sensible part of the electorate. In fact the entire focus on social issues (thank you Mr. Limbaugh and Santorum) has damaged Republican’s standing with women to an extent which goes far beyond the presidential race.

The fall election campaign will see Republicans spending millions in advertising trying to convince women that they really have their best interests at heart and that their supposed war on women was one big lie brought to you compliments of lying libs in the lamestream media. Yawn.

Dems, of course, will spend an equally obscene amount of money reminding women voters of exactly where Republicans stand on women’s rights. All of this ~~begs~~ raises the question: why are social issues in play in this election year? It’s a losing proposition for conservatives – especially when it comes to women’s reproductive rights. Wasn’t this election supposed to be about ‘it’s the economy, stupid’?

A Republican strategist noted, “The focus on contraception has not been a good one for us … and Republicans have unfairly taken on water on this issue.” Unfairly? How delusional can these people be? They refuse to take responsibility for any of the shit they find themselves in. Republicans are the ones who brought up the social issues. It is their doing and it’s their candidates, their members in Congress and their conservative media who haven’t been able to restrain themselves from coming off as a bunch of white guys in suits hoping to take their country back to a time before women’s suffrage gave women the right to vote.

As for contraception not being a good issue for Republicans, here’s a little zinger from a TPM reader.

…because the previous focus on republicans as xenophobic, racist a-hole who oppose science, support the rich and oppose health care is such a winner for them.

Nice.

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Filed Under: polls, Women's Rights Tagged With: 2012 election

To Know Romney Is To Loathe Him

March 30, 2012 By mario piperni

Yes, there are another seven months to go before the general election…and yes, issues like the economy and the health care law will have an effect on the final outcome. You can also count on Republicans uniting (begrudgingly as it may be) once Romney wins the nomination.

But it’s charts like this one which must be giving conservative strategists sleepless nights.

Steve Benen:

…the likely GOP nominee has a problem that’s hard to fix: the more folks see him, the less folks like him… Since disliked candidates usually lose, this should cause some discomfort in Republican circles.

Romney has been campaigning for this job for the last six years so it’s hard to imagine what he can do differently at this point to reverse his favorability numbers. Probably not much. He is what he is.

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Filed Under: polls Tagged With: 2012 election, mitt romney

On Obama, Second Terms and Polls

March 5, 2012 By mario piperni

A piece in the Washington Post looks at what President Obama’s friends and foes envision emerging in a second Obama term. For friends it’s a projection of their “brightest hopes” while foes of the President are convinced that four more years of Marxist rule will bring about their “deepest nightmares.”

If President Obama wins a second term, he will finally endorse same-sex marriage. Gay rights groups are almost certain. He will also make a new, historic effort to fight climate change — environmentalists are pretty sure.

And Obama will finally do just what the Congressional Black Caucus wants. According to some members of the Congressional Black Caucus.

Conservative groups are equally confident that Obama, freed from the fear of losing his reelection bid, would deliver on far-reaching left-wing dreams. GOP candidate Mitt Romney forecasts a runaway spending spree. Newt Gingrich envisions a “war” on the Catholic Church. The National Rifle Association predicts a crackdown on gun owners.

The funny thing about all this is: Obama himself hasn’t said he’ll do any of it.

Is it still too early to speculate long and hard on an Obama second term? Well, perhaps so, but not according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll which is nothing but bad news for Republicans. Not only has the President’s approval rating hit the 50% mark (highest since bin Laden took a bullet in the head) but it also shows voters favoring Obama over Romney (50% and 44% respectively) and a Democratic controlled congress favored over a Republican one by a 5% margin.

Romney’s favorable/unfavorable ratings have also taken a hit in the last month – 31/36 in January to 28/39 in this latest poll. Among independents, only 22% view Mitt Romney favorably. Ouch.

This is what happens when a political party and its leaders have no new ideas to offer aside from the same stale, unworkable policies which brought the economy to a standstill and worse. Add to this a year of Republicans beating up on themselves in the race to pick a nominee. Particularly damaging has been the last few months of Republicans focused on social issues and in the process frightening off women, conservatives and independent alike. It’s no wonder that liberals and Democrats hope the Republican race runs all the way to the GOP’s national convention in Tampa in late August.

How damaging has the primary season – with all of its debates, attack ads and scrutiny — been for the Republican Party?

Forty percent of all adults say the GOP contest so far has made them feel less favorable about the party, while 12 percent say they now have a more favorable impression. Forty-seven percent say it’s had no impact.

Even among Republicans, 23 percent maintain the primary season has given them a less favorable opinion of the party, versus 16 percent who say it’s been positive.

It’s only March so much can still change but at this point there is a clear message being sent out to Republicans. The majority of Americans like neither them nor the message they’ve been conveying. And with eight months until November and Mitt Romney as the likely Republican nominee, there does not appear to be anyone or anything that is going to change that message.

So while the President’s supporters and detractors debate and speculate on whom the real Obama is and what his true intentions might be, the Republican party currently finds itself in the midst of an internal, ugly struggle on defining who they are.

As for voters, it appears they’re quickly coming to their own conclusions.

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Filed Under: polls Tagged With: 2012 election

What’s The Deal With Obama’s Coalition?

December 7, 2010 By mario piperni

Ok, so President Obama and Democrats took a “shellacking’ in the November midterms. Dems lost 63 House seats and another six in the Senate. Not a pretty picture and if we’re to listen to the doomsayers, Democrats don’t have a chance of holding on to Congress or the White House come 2012.

Time’s Mark Halperin wrote in a total downer of a post.

The coalition that got Barack Obama elected President just two years ago has been shattered.

Really? Is the Obama coalition of young people, women, African Americans, and Hispanics really shattered? Is it game over for Democrats, liberals, progressives and independents who found hope and change in the presidency of Barack Obama?

Nah, Halperin is full of it. The coalition lives. Here are the numbers from the latest NBC/WSJ poll.

- Blacks: 90% approve/6% disapprove
- Democrats: 82/12
- Liberals: 79/16
- Latinos: 56/33
- Post grads: 56/41
- UPDATE: 18-29: 53/38
- UPDATE 2: NBC’s Ana Maria Arumi notes that in the 2010 midterm exit polls, voters 18-29 said they approved of the president’s job by a 62/38 margin, which is close to how they voted in 2008 — 66/32
- Women: 52/43
- 18-34: 49/43

And here’s what the Republican half of the polling team had to say.

“It’s a reminder again … for a guy who took a shellacking, he’s got a pretty strong core pulse.” He cited Obama’s strong support among a core constituency of younger women, blacks, Latinos, young voters, voters in the West, and under-30 urban moderates. “This is a president that retains political standing,” he added.

It’s not going to be easy but this thing ain’t over by a long shot. The black Muslim socialist kid from Kenya is still in the game.

Filed Under: Barack Obama, polls Tagged With: Obama, polls

Sarah Palin: To Run Or Not

November 22, 2010 By mario piperni

The good news for Palin:

In a mythical Republican primary Ms. Palin gets 19 percent, including 25 percent of GOP women, followed by Romney with 18 percent, Huckabee at 17 percent, Gingrich at 15 percent, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 6 percent and Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Sen. John Thune of South Dakota at 2 percent each.

The bad news: Obama would crush her in the general election by a 48% – 40% margin.

Polls of this sort, two years before the actual election and before prospective candidates have begun campaigning in earnest, are meaningless. But it does say something of the mindset of Republicans who despite Palin’s glaring inadequacies, still view her as a serious contender. Interesting…if not pathetic.

A more relevant find from the poll is that by a 64 to 27 percent margin, Democratic voters want Barack Obama as their party’s 2012 nominee.

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Filed Under: Palin Watch, polls Tagged With: 2012, palin, political issues, polls